electoral college map
Over the past month I've been trying to keep up with sites that track the electoral vote predictions for the presidential election. I think looking state by state is more interesting that just following national poll numbers. There are 2 sites I really like for tracking the electoral college predictions.
First up is Electoral-vote.com. They have a nice big map showing their predictions. I also really like their breakdown of electoral vote estimates over time. There are two graphs for 2008 on here, the estimated electoral votes over time, and below that are just the counts of “safe” states for each candidate. Safe states means the candidate has > 5% lead over their opponent. It also has the full graphs from 2004 for comparison.
Next up is fivethirtyeight.com. This guy puts tons of math behind his analysis. They run thousands of simulations every day, based on their analysis of current and historical polling. Halfway down on the right side is a list of chances for bizarre outcomes such as an electoral vote tie (currently 0.28%) or Obama losing the popular vote but winning the electoral vote (3.23%).
Electoral Vote Distribution
The past 3 or 4 weeks we've seen a huge slide towards Obama in all of these estimates. I'll be keeping an eye on these sites in the last 3 weeks before election day.
